“Regional ambitions through trade? Observations on Kazakhstan’s aspirations towards the Taliban government of Afghanistan”

Today we publish the material of the International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, IFIMES, Ljubljana, Slovenia).

In the article “Regional ambitions through trade? Observations on Kazakhstan’s aspirations towards the Taliban government of Afghanistan” the authors share their opinion on “Kazakhstan’s regional ambitions aimed at Afghanistan and implemented through trade relations.

For a better understanding by readers, the Open World first shares its impression of the article.

Comments on the “Open World”

In general, the authors of the article quite simply and clearly stated Kazakhstan’s position in relation to modern Afghanistan, based on the need to develop trade and economic cooperation with Afghanistan, which will not only integrate this country into Central Asian relations, but also create conditions for its gradual return to the international order.

It is obvious to us that the integration of Afghanistan as a regional partner in the face of modern challenges is a natural and objective process that opens up new prospects for the whole of Central Asia, and not for Kazakhstan alone.

In this aspect, we disagree only with the thesis that economic relations with Afghanistan are a measure of the realization of Kazakhstan’s regional ambitions. In our opinion, in the situation with Afghanistan, trade and economic relations will in no way be a stumbling block that needs to be fought for – this is a natural process and, as Benjamin Franklin said, “trade has not ruined any people yet.” In addition, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which share borders with Afghanistan, have more favorable conditions for trade with their southern neighbor.

Somewhat superficially, in our opinion, the authors approached the topic of transport corridors, namely, the essence of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TMTM, also known as the Middle Corridor), running through China, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, further to Turkey and European countries. What does Afghanistan and Astana’s regional ambitions have to do with it?! How will Kazakhstan become “the only intermediary in trade, controlling the flow of goods between Asia and Europe”?! Despite the fact that Afghanistan and Kazakhstan are connected by Uzbek railways (by the way, Uzbekistan is an associate member of TMTM).

If Afghanistan connects with the world through this corridor, then everyone will benefit from it. It is also necessary to take into account the really ambitious project of the Trans-Afghan Railway, which will connect Uzbekistan and Pakistan through Afghan territory (Kazakhstan, by the way, supported this project and is ready to participate in it). Afghanistan also has a railway access to Turkmenistan through Akina station, a hub station in the ongoing Tajikistan–Afghanistan–Turkmenistan railway project.

In its west, Afghanistan is connected to Iran by the Khaf – Herat railway, there are plans to continue it to the south of the country – to Kandahar and further east to Jalalabad (and this is the exit of these regions to the ports of the Persian Gulf).

The topic of logistics corridors through Afghanistan is quite capacious and requires broader coverage. We touched on it in part in our first article on the Afghan problem and we will definitely return to it again.

In general, we would like to note that the specifics of the “Afghan economic front” dictate the need for active cooperation between all five Central Asian republics, including in order to develop common approaches towards their southern neighbor. It is very important for us (the region) to jointly overcome the peculiarities of the historical heritage of Afghanistan of the XIX-XX centuries, which can already be considered one of the long-term regional trends. Strengthening the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) will help to make significant progress in this.

Despite the emphasis of the authors of the article under consideration on economic issues, they still failed to touch on security issues. The theses about Astana’s control of the “flow of Islamist groups” do not stand up to any criticism (well, Kazakhstan as a separate state cannot exert such influence), but they are offset by the main thing – here the authors hit the nail on the head – it is necessary to open the doors to create a regional security system for Central Asia. As we said earlier, the new paradigm of regional security can become one of the main backbone elements of the new relationship with Afghanistan. However, again, Astana alone cannot “open the doors”.…

During the preparation of these comments, the opinion was voiced that the IFIMES material is a reflection of the pan-European view of the ongoing processes around Afghanistan. Let’s hurry to disagree with this. As the authors themselves point out, “Afghanistan is considered a hopeless topic” in modern international discourse. In our opinion, this thesis applies to a greater extent to Western European countries, where there is no hint of a more or less unambiguous understanding of the “Afghan theme”, and the main trigger is “violations of human rights by the Taliban”, despite the fact that the country needs the support of European donors and the development of trade relations more than ever and investments. It seems to us that Europe is more guided by the position of the United States.

The latter, as insider information shows, have significantly moved towards Afghanistan in a non-public field and clearly do not intend to leave the situation there outside their interests. This is also due to Pakistan, the main ally of the Americans in South Asia, and Iran, which, according to Washington, is the sole beneficiary of the Middle East crisis. Here, the interests of the United States and the West in the Central Asian region, the confrontation with Russia and China, the increasing role of India … all the elements of the “New Big Game” are evident.

Open World thanks the authors of the article for their attention to the topic “Afghanistan – Central Asia”. We tried to approach our assessment as constructively as possible, as a local resident.

The view from Europe is especially relevant for us against the background of the release of the REPORT on the EU strategy on Central Asia.

In particular, the document notes that the Central Asian states, with the exception of Tajikistan, have long adhered to the strategy of maintaining relations with Afghanistan and have developed their own pragmatic approach to interaction with the Taliban. However, they have not officially recognized the Taliban since seizing power in 2021.

It is emphasized that the countries of the region, in particular Pakistan and China, as well as the Central Asian republics, play a key role in ensuring stability in Afghanistan through the provision of humanitarian assistance, electricity, trade opportunities and joint projects.

The initiative of the EU Special Representative for Afghanistan is encouraged to continue close cooperation on Afghanistan in partnership with the Central Asian States within the framework of the EU-Central Asia dialogue.

It is recognized that Central Asia is a key region for containing religious extremism, terrorism and drug distribution routes, as well as that the region is facing increasing migration pressure due to the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan.