Taliban and Neighbours: Reality and Expectations

Reapprochement or De-facto Relations

There has been a notable trend recently in the Taliban’s successful development of cooperation with neighboring countries – seemingly, in contrast to isolation from the West, the Taliban have opted for a new formula, actively seeking to establish ties with the capitals of regional states.

They have thus shifted their foreign policy focus towards the regional segment, where pragmatism rather than ideological and worldview considerations are deemed more important to participants.

While various forms of cooperation with Afghanistan are historically understandable for Iran and Pakistan, the Taliban’s “openness” to broader dialogue, alongside advancing their economic interests, offers the prospect of transforming them from a subregion into a fully-fledged and self-sufficient region within the international relations system for Central Asian republics. Central Asian countries still need to overcome past narratives, develop unified approaches (including through regional formats), and practically demonstrate seeing Afghanistan as a full-fledged partner.

For now, however, regional states are acting intuitively on the Afghan front, without a proper grasp of the strategic depth of the aforementioned perspective, not considering the regional agenda, and trying to gain their benefits in building trade and economic relations with the new Afghan authorities.

Overall, regional players are pursuing different vectors and acting according to circumstances, despite a shared desire to see a stable neighbor in Afghanistan. Islamabad’s primary trigger in its relations with Kabul is the TTP. Tehran aims to protect the Shiite minority and sees it in an inclusive government, but at the same time, it boldly engages in dialogue with the Taliban, including on border security issues. The latter aspect is also relevant for Central Asian republics, although they try to veil it behind trade relations, whose potential, as it turns out, is not as great.

Mainstream or Crossing the Threshold

Afghanistan’s neighbors collaborate with de facto authorities to secure their interests, safety, and stability, driven by the unquestionable geo-economic attractiveness of the country. However, mere common interests are insufficient – considering the new geopolitical conditions globally, Afghanistan’s surroundings need to act in a unified paradigm.

Approaching Afghanistan cannot be solely through increasing bilateral trade volumes, as trade itself is not a panacea. The real condition for kickstarting Afghanistan’s economic stabilization can only be strategic infrastructure projects, extensively and beautifully discussed in the region, but which face serious hindrances, primarily the security situation.

Nevertheless, it’s already evident that the regional dimension of the “Afghan issue” is correct. At the very least, the situation within it has become more predictable and stable than previously anticipated.

However, the orientation towards regional countries should not be solely the choice and prerogative of the Islamic Emirate. In response, the region can and should build its own system of coordinated measures and approaches, united by one idea, wherein security aspects, including in the context of infrastructure projects’ prospects in Afghanistan, will not be insignificant.

It is precisely this threshold that regional countries must overcome to demonstrate the competitiveness of the regional format in addressing Afghanistan’s problems and beyond.

Revitalization or Focus on Regional Interests

The reality of the modern global economy has seen a shift in the center of gravity from developed to developing countries. As a result of the rapid economic growth of the latter, the world is undergoing a process of restructuring, leading to the emergence of the true role of regional integration partnerships.

Central Asian countries possess the political potential and economic resources to overcome the threshold. The degree of their overall integration allows, at the very least, for the establishment of a common dialogue on the most pressing agenda items – such as issues of joint water usage, energy, infrastructure, and investment projects, as well as the optimization of existing and future transport and logistics corridors.

Afghanistan could become a unifying factor for the countries in the region and serve the interests of regional development. Preconditions for this are already laid out within the framework of Consultative Meetings of the Heads of Central Asian States.

Contemporary realities dictate the region’s necessity for accelerated resolution of existing differences in the vision of intra-regional relations and the creation of a new model, with external support, especially in the context of regional security, which can be provided by organizations like the SCO, OTS, CICA, OIC, CSTO, and the “C5+” formula.

In this context, it’s worth noting that over the past two decades, the SCO has evolved into a key platform for discussing a wide range of issues in the Eurasian space. At present, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization represents a format capable of practically implementing multilateral measures in the sphere of regional security.

Afghanistan holds observer status in the SCO, and its new authorities demonstrate willingness to strengthen their interaction with it.

Afghanistan remains a member of the OTS, within which dialogue can also be realized. This organization is undergoing a transformation process into a fully-fledged regional international organization and is capable of providing flexibility and adaptability to account for changing circumstances and the needs of the parties.

Another unifying regional structure is the Organization of Turkic States. Its increasing role on the international stage is manifested, among other things, in its intention to develop specific mechanisms aimed at preventing the weakening of humanitarian assistance to the Afghan people and addressing acute social problems in the country.

Renascence or Inevitability of Unity

The existential need to realize the transit and transport potential of the entire Central Asia region serves as an obvious premise for uniting efforts within the region. In this regard, the question arises once again about the possibility of creating a unifying platform, such as “C5+Afghanistan” (C5+A), where Afghanistan would be the cornerstone of this alliance regardless of the existing political regime there.

The formula “C5+A”, supported by the aforementioned “external supports”, will positively contribute to the process of building Afghanistan as an adequate economic subject, with which one can work within commonly accepted economic standards and formats.

In the short term, the region will need to focus on internal security issues in Afghanistan. In this sphere, it is necessary to guide the Taliban towards the initiation of sustainable and rational dialogue, with the involvement of Iran, Pakistan, and international structures as well. It is important to urge the Emirate to move away from statements about “success in combating terrorism” towards adopting a more transparent position based on the inclusion of regional countries in security dialogue on bilateral and multilateral bases.

Undoubtedly, these steps will ensure the political stability of the Islamic Emirate regime itself. However, it must be understood that solving the pressing issues on the political agenda solely through direct punitive actions (sanctions, restrictions, blockade) is no longer possible. They require peaceful and comprehensive systemic measures, which can be regional mechanisms of assistance rather than coercion.

For the first step, there needs to be an understanding that Afghanistan and Central Asia are inseparably linked in all dimensions. The former can provide an impetus for strengthening integration processes in the region.

Jointly coordinated steps by the five republics on the Afghan track can ultimately serve as the basis for understanding the paths and prospects of their further integration, including the inclusion of Afghanistan in this process.