The “Afghan Quartet ” received an unexpected expansion

On January 29th, an intriguing forum took place in Kabul – the Taliban unexpectedly became the organizers of an international event, the “Afghanistan’s Regional Cooperation Initiative” summit. 11 countries participated in the conference. It is noteworthy to mention the level of representation: Russia, China, and Iran sent their special representatives on Afghanistan, while the other countries – Indonesia, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Turkey, and Turkmenistan – were represented by the heads of diplomatic missions.

The absence of representatives from international organizations, primarily the UN through its Mission Assistance to Afghanistan (UNAMA), might be a Taliban reaction to recent UN initiatives (such as the “roadmap” and the appointment of a Special Representative), especially in anticipation of the upcoming meeting in Doha (February 18-19) under the auspices of the UN.

It is presumed that initially, a meeting of the “Regional Contact Group” with the participation of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA, also known as the “Afghan Quartet”: Iran, China, Pakistan, and Russia) was scheduled to take place in Kabul. However, the Taliban evidently played the card of expanding the format at the very last moment, thereby indicating their regional priority.

Interestingly, the signing of the final document did not take place. There is information that it will happen later, after coordination among the countries not included in the “quartet.”

Key Theses Presented at the Conference

The agenda of the meeting primarily focused on issues of regional cooperation, including the development of a regionally-oriented concept of relations, investment opportunities in Afghanistan, and collaboration in strengthening Afghan state institutions.

Initiated by the Taliban, non-regional topics were brought up, notably the call to unfreeze the Afghan central bank and the demand for the West to abandon its sanction policy towards Afghanistan.

Pressing international concerns such as human rights and inclusive governance were conspicuously absent from the discussions.

The address by A. Mottaki, Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs for the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA), did not introduce any fundamentally new positions from the Afghan side. The conference platform was used to remind about the negative experiences of foreign intervention and attempts to impose various models on Afghanistan. The stance against the appointment of the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Afghanistan was reiterated, along with anti-Israeli statements.

The representative of China clarified the country’s position, based on recognizing and supporting Afghanistan’s right to determine its own future and opposing interference in its internal affairs. It was stated that China still believes the United States should take responsibility for the destructive consequences of its two-decade presence in Afghanistan.

Russia’s Special Representative for Afghanistan emphasized the extreme importance of lifting all imposed sanctions on Afghanistan and the immediate unfreezing of its financial assets. These issues will be raised by the Russian side during the upcoming meeting in Doha.

Iran’s Special Envoy highlighted two crucial “development components” for Afghanistan – good neighborliness and “non-discriminatory governance within the country.” The latter is an explicit reference to inclusive governance and the position of Shiites. The thesis “Stable Afghanistan – stable region” was articulated.

The representative of Pakistan considered the establishment of centralized authority and the cessation of violence as the Afghan government’s main achievements. According to him, Afghanistan should realize its potential as a regional hub, and Pakistan hopes for the implementation of projects such as CASA-1000, the Trans-Afghan Railway, and TAPI.

India’s position was described as being based on the development of cooperation with Afghanistan, highlighting various donor projects in the country.

The Turkish envoy emphasized the Afghan people’s right to self-determination and the need for cooperation with the current authorities in Afghanistan.

As we anticipate, despite the Taliban altering the format, members of the “quartet” still had the opportunity to discuss their priority issues during their stay in Kabul, including the purpose of “checking the clock” on the eve of the Doha conference on Afghanistan. Currently, there is no information on whether the Afghan Emirate will participate in it. It is certain that the meeting on January 29 allowed the “quartet” to adjust its position on the UN’s “roadmap,” which largely reflects the stance of the West.

In our view, the Taliban’s “Regional Cooperation Initiative” served as a message to all interested parties and served as the first international platform where the IEA authorities declared their foreign policy priorities, stating their commitment to “independent comprehensive dialogue and cooperation with all states in the region and the world.” This is particularly crucial given the upcoming event in Doha.

Moreover, it is entirely possible that the Taliban, by showcasing their “regional victories,” hope to push the US and its allies towards a more constructive dialogue with them. We earnestly hope that the expected multifaceted cooperation on Afghanistan will not lead to the realization of polarized interests of global powers, a catalyst for which could be the format initiated by the Taliban in the Kabul summit.

Overall, disregarding geopolitical considerations, the “Initiative” creates a positive expert mood in the context of genuine regional interests. As we have mentioned before, Afghanistan is at a juncture in history that provides an opportunity to break free from its historical fate as the “graveyard of empires,” a proxy war zone, and a battleground for various narratives. Instead of the geopolitical ambitions of an era of ideological confrontation, pragmatism should prevail, based on the potential for Afghanistan’s geo-economic development.

The Open World Foundation (OWF) has previously expressed its opinion that the current authorities in Afghanistan need to be given the opportunity to implement a long-term economic strategy, in the development of which the region and the international community will participate. In this regard, the formulation of a clear and coherent Afghan position regarding regional policy is the first step toward a promising future.