“Afghanistan: Crossroads of Geopolitical Disputes”

The Significance of Afghanistan as a Transit Hub for Central Asia

Throughout its history, Afghanistan has been a vital corridor for trade between the West and the East, the North and the South. Afghanistan is strategically positioned at the convergence point of four of the world’s most densely populated and resource-rich regions: South Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and the Far East.

Thanks to its geographical location, Afghanistan has been a site of immense wealth and prosperity and, up until the 16th century, was considered the heart of Central Asia. It intersected ancient trade routes known as the Great Silk Road, connecting Asia to the rest of the world. Some routes led eastward to China, some northward to the cities of Bukhara, Samarkand, and Khiva, and then into the nomadic steppe. Others headed southeast to India, westward to Iran, and then flowed into the Mediterranean Sea and Europe. Any trade conducted along these routes passed through Afghanistan. Its cities were strategically positioned along these vital trade routes, reaping substantial benefits as centers of commercial exchange.

Since the 19th century, Afghanistan and its neighboring countries have become a zone of global competition. In this territory, colonial powers and ideological blocs engaged in the so-called “Great Game”. Intense rivalry still persists.

Currently, Afghanistan is strengthening its role as a key transit point. Above all, transport connectivity, as a means of enhancing stability in Afghanistan, is gaining significance for Central Asian countries, partly due to China’s strategic project, the “Belt and Road Initiative.”

As a regional land bridge, Afghanistan plays a pivotal role in shaping the prospects of fair trade between Central and South Asia, potentially ushering in new models of transit trade in the region. The changes in the global economy, trade, and commodity markets over the past decades elevate the strategic importance of Afghanistan’s territory to a level previously unseen in international economic relations.

Compared to other alternative routes, Afghanistan offers the shortest and most cost-effective routes for highways, railways, pipelines, and power transmission lines between Central and South Asia. This should be regarded as a significant opportunity for the countries in the region to strengthen their political and economic relationships, which can have a substantial impact on ensuring security in Afghanistan based on mutual economic interests. In the coming decades, Afghanistan could hold a crucial role in the Eurasian continental trade network as a central connecting and transit hub.

Past Afghan leaders, the private sector, and foreign donors have all worked towards restoring Afghanistan’s historical status as a regional trade and transit hub. The changed political circumstances since 2021 have once again provided Afghanistan with an opportunity to strengthen regional ties by expanding trade and implementing other forms of constructive bilateral and multilateral cooperation.

The current situation around Afghanistan is favorable in many aspects, particularly in the energy sector. Central Asia is rich in energy resources, while South Asia faces a shortage. Central Asian republics have an excess of gas and energy resources, requiring a market for their sale. The South Asian energy market is desirable for Central Asian republics due to the growing demand for gas and electricity in Pakistan and India, driven by dynamic population growth and geographical proximity. Thus, Afghanistan provides a unique overland corridor for the trade and transit of energy resources from Central Asia to the South, which no other country can offer. The advantageous significance of transporting energy resources has been recognized by previous and current Afghan governments, regional countries, and international organizations.

At the same time, Afghanistan’s geographical location is crucial for regional integration and interconnectedness, yet it is not a panacea in itself. Creating conditions that enable regional cooperation is considered critically important in this case. Issues such as border security, infrastructure deficits, and the lack of bilateral and multilateral agreements to regulate cross-border trade and transportation diminish Afghanistan’s chances of achieving ambitious goals.

However, in 2024, it can be argued that formulating a policy based on a collaborative approach at regional and international levels to overcome these interrelated negative trends is a significant step towards ensuring Afghanistan’s transit potential and maintaining its political, economic, and social integrity. Due to changing political and economic events and improvements in the security situation, Afghanistan is once again becoming a focal point of interest for the region and the world. Over the past year, the de facto authorities in Afghanistan have focused on strengthening regional cooperation, attempting to address issues, and create opportunities through the implementation of promising regional and transregional transit-transport initiatives. The Taliban has intensified a significant portion of its efforts to strengthen, expand, and intensify regional ties, especially in the economic sphere.

Demonstrating Afghanistan’s geo-economic role forms the basis of the de facto government’s regional policy, and the country may soon become the subject of bilateral and multilateral relations with most countries in the region. This will not only benefit a large part of the population economically and humanitarianly but will also revitalize and strengthen historical and cultural ties among the people of the region more than ever before, playing a key role in promoting and accelerating the emergence of a strong Asia in terms of economic prospects. As Afghanistan and the Central Asian countries lack access to the sea, creating a transit hub is vitally important for the region to gain access to regional and international trade markets.

As efforts to expand economic cooperation in the region intensify, Afghanistan’s role as the shortest and least costly link between the two regions will become increasingly prominent. Consequently, one of the most fundamental arguments for developing transit potential is the restoration of this country’s traditional significance as a connecting link between the two regions.

Countries in South Asia form a common market with a population of nearly 2 billion people and suffer from an energy deficit. This problem can be addressed through TAPI, which will become a key integration project, allowing the transportation of gas from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan and India. Approximately 800 kilometers of the pipeline will traverse Afghanistan, passing through the provinces of Herat, Farah, Nimroz, Helmand, and Kandahar. In Afghanistan, the TAPI pipeline will be constructed alongside the Kandahar-Herat highway in western Afghanistan, and then through Quetta and Multan in Pakistan. The pipeline’s final destination will be the Indian city of Fazilka, near the Pakistan border. It is expected that Afghanistan will receive up to $500 million annually from this project in the form of duties, and the Taliban is ready to take responsibility for Afghanistan’s commitments to the project.

Officials from TAPI member states, including the Islamic Emirate, see this as more than just a project and believe that comprehensive partnership will lead Afghanistan and the region to prosperity, expanded cooperation, and socio-economic development in Central and South Asia. The TAPI gas pipeline will bring significant benefits to the region and its four member countries, especially Afghanistan, in terms of economics, security, social and cultural life. On the other hand, this project contributes to economic growth, increased purchasing power, reduced unemployment and poverty, lower gas prices nationwide, and stabilizes Afghanistan’s overall economic and strategic position.

The “Central Asia – South Asia (CASA-1000)” project, which involves transmitting electricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan over a distance of 1250 kilometers, holds great importance in the transit of electricity. Within the initiative, new power transmission lines will be laid in these countries.

The expansion of economic cooperation between Central and South Asia also heavily relies on land transportation. Afghanistan, as the shortest route between the two regions, is considered a key participant in the formation of international multimodal corridors. Automobile routes between Central and South Asia through Afghanistan can significantly reduce transportation time and costs, leading to increased trade between the two regions. Considering the economic impact of potential railway routes connecting Central and South Asian countries through Afghanistan, the benefits of land transportation between the two regions will be much higher.

In the context of growing shipments on the “East-West” and “North-South” routes, international transport routes become particularly important for the development of Afghanistan and Central Asian countries, namely the “Lapis Lazuli Corridor,” the “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,” the “Middle Corridor” project, the multimodal international transport corridor “North – South,” and the “Trans-Afghan Transport Corridor”.

Considering the benefits that all these projects will bring to Central Asia, it can be argued that the primary opportunity will be to gain crucial access to the World Ocean, allowing the overcoming of a significant obstacle for accessing other markets.

In summary, it is worth noting that the most significant challenge for both Afghanistan and the countries in the region remains the geopolitical situation.

Firstly, there are obstacles to establishing regional connections through Afghanistan due to the state having endured over four decades of war, with its destructive consequences still influencing the country. The prolonged proxy wars in Afghanistan have led to serious systemic deficiencies in governance and the economy.

Secondly, the previous Afghan authorities have failed to develop a sustainable strategy over the years, ensuring the country’s economic self-sufficiency. Afghanistan now struggles with dependence on foreign aid. Funding for transit projects through Afghanistan is quite expensive, and their implementation depends on the positions of other countries. Ongoing financial support of the humanitarian dimension is crucial to overcoming Afghanistan’s economic challenges. At the same time, international donor assistance is gradually decreasing and faces increasing criticism from civil society.

Thirdly, border tensions, legal instability, and poverty are among the current major obstacles. Afghanistan, due to its unique geopolitical position, has long been considered a point of conflict for the interests of regional and transregional countries, significantly impacting the overall situation. As a result, Afghanistan has become a victim of regional and global competition among powerful states, creating substantial problems. Today, factors of social, economic, border, and territorial tensions are being exploited by certain actors to maintain Afghanistan’s instability, providing them the opportunity to intervene and pursue their interests.

Overall, it is advisable for the country’s government to develop a long-term economic strategy aligned with its needs and capabilities to optimally utilize regional opportunities for enhancing and strengthening regional transit cooperation. At the very least, a plan outlining the country’s relations with its immediate neighbors and regional organizations over three temporal periods – short-term, medium-term, and long-term – is needed.

Simultaneously, the lack of international legitimacy for the Afghan government hinders regional countries from developing much-needed, independent long-term economic strategies and policies regarding Afghanistan to balance the interests of competing countries within and beyond the region. Years of tension, political disputes, hostility, and conflicts in the region have proven that the destinies of neighboring countries are interconnected, and challenges in one country can have detrimental consequences for others.

Afghanistan is a country with enormous potential in terms of strategic geographical location, natural resources, and a young demographic. The de facto authorities in Afghanistan need to articulate a clear position on regional policy, conclude interstate agreements to maintain economic stability, a crucial step towards developing the transit-transport potential that significantly influences Central Asian countries.

The commitment of the Taliban and the governments of other neighboring countries to the common goal of creating transit routes in the region would mean that Afghanistan’s strategic geographical position, as a crossroads in Asia, will bring mutually beneficial advantages to the country and the region. However, the influence of foreign countries, including Afghanistan’s neighbors, may also contribute to maintaining long-term negative trends and obstruct the achievement of economic growth goals aimed at establishing transit connections.

All these factors require coordinated efforts from countries at regional and international levels, based on a pragmatic approach to shift the “Great Game” towards the interests of the region.